Don’t Count on a Rate Cut

Post from First Trust Economics Blog Brian S. Wesbury – Chief EconomistRobert Stein, CFA – Deputy Chief Economist  May 20, 2019 At the close of activity on Friday the futures market in federal funds was projecting a 75% chance of at least one rate cut this year.  From now through the end of 2020, the market is […]

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Trade War Hysterics

Post from First Trust Economics Blog Brian S. Wesbury – Chief EconomistRobert Stein, CFA – Deputy Chief Economist  May 13, 2019 Since hitting new all-time highs two weeks ago, the S&P 500 has fallen about 2.2% as trade negotiations with China hit a snag.  Last week, the US announced new tariffs on Chinese imports.  This morning, China […]

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The Big Picture and the Fed

Post from First Trust Economics Blog Brian S. Wesbury – Chief EconomistRobert Stein, CFA – Deputy Chief Economist  May 6, 2019 If you take a long hike up a mountain, there’s plenty to appreciate along the way.  But, sometimes, you just have to stop and enjoy the view.  With that in mind, let’s forget about the April […]

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Good-bye Recession Fears

Post from First Trust Economics Blog Brian S. Wesbury – Chief EconomistRobert Stein, CFA – Deputy Chief Economist  April 29, 2019 Less than two months ago, conventional wisdom thought the US economy was in real trouble.  The consensus expected real GDP would barely grow, if at all, in the first quarter of 2019.  Many were in a […]

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Resilient Economy

Post from First Trust Economics Blog Brian S. Wesbury – Chief EconomistRobert Stein, CFA – Deputy Chief Economist  April 22, 2019 It wasn’t that long ago that some economists and investors were seriously concerned about US growth going negative for the first quarter.  Now, based on our calculations, which we discuss below, it looks like real GDP […]

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New Highs, Still a Buy

Post from First Trust Economics Blog Brian S. Wesbury – Chief EconomistRobert Stein, CFA – Deputy Chief Economist  April 15, 2019 The Dow Jones Industrials Average and S&P 500 are breathing down the neck of record highs set last Fall.  Some take that as a sign to sell, time to shift out of equities and realize gains.  […]

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Economy on Very Solid Ground

Post from First Trust Economics Blog Brian S. Wesbury – Chief EconomistRobert Stein, CFA – Deputy Chief Economist  April 8, 2019 What a difference a month makes.  Last month many economists had pushed down their estimates for first quarter economic growth to near zero.  The Atlanta Fed’s “GDP Now” model was projecting real GDP growth at a […]

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Don’t Cut Rates, Cut Spending

Post from First Trust Economics Blog Brian S. Wesbury – Chief EconomistRobert Stein, CFA – Deputy Chief Economist  April 1, 2019 We’ve been “Comrades in Supply-side Arms” with Stephen Moore (now a Federal Reserve nominee) and Larry Kudlow (Administration Economist) for decades, with very few disagreements on economic policy.  However, with both having called for a 50 […]

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The Wizard of Oz

Post from First Trust Economics Blog Brian S. Wesbury – Chief EconomistRobert Stein, CFA – Deputy Chief Economist  March 25, 2019 It feels like we are living in the Land of Oz and the Fed is the “all-powerful” wizard in control. From just about every significant group of thought leaders – the press, politicians, economists, analysts, and […]

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Buybacks Aren’t the Problem!

Post from First Trust Economics Blog Brian S. Wesbury – Chief EconomistRobert Stein, CFA – Deputy Chief Economist  March 18, 2019 The environment on Capitol Hill has made populism a bipartisan affair, with Republican Senator Marco Rubio now joining the fray with a call to tax corporate stock buybacks. His argument? Corporations are buying back stock instead […]

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