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GDP Soars in Third Quarter

Post from First Trust Economics Blog Brian S. Wesbury – Chief Economist Robert Stein, CFA – Deputy Chief Economist  Oct 19th, 2020 There is nothing normal about the 2020 recession. Massive nationwide shutdowns of “non-essential” businesses caused real GDP to drop at a 31.4% annual rate in the second quarter, the biggest drop since the 1930s. However, […]

Profits Poised for Growth

Post from First Trust Economics Blog Brian S. Wesbury – Chief Economist Robert Stein, CFA – Deputy Chief Economist  Oct 13th, 2020 COVID lockdowns crushed the economy in the first half of 2020, with real GDP down 5.0% at an annual rate in the first quarter and 31.4% at annual rate in the second quarter, the latter […]

The Fed Gambles on Inflation

Post from First Trust Economics Blog Brian S. Wesbury – Chief Economist Robert Stein, CFA – Deputy Chief Economist  Oct 5th, 2020 Over the past couple of decades, the Federal Reserve has coalesced around an idea about inflation that is little more than theoretical, with no real data to back it up. That “idea” is that 2% […]

Full Recovery Requires Reopening

Post from First Trust Economics Blog Brian S. Wesbury – Chief Economist Robert Stein, CFA – Deputy Chief Economist  Sept 28th, 2020 With the presidential election just over a month away, prospects for another round of fiscal stimulus seem to be dwindling. The recent death of Justice Ginsburg and the rapidly approaching election have shifted the Senate’s […]

The Long Slog Recovery!

Post from First Trust Economics Blog Brian S. Wesbury – Chief Economist Robert Stein, CFA – Deputy Chief Economist  Sept 21st, 2020 The second quarter of 2020 was the mother of all economic contractions. Real GDP shrank at a 31.7% annual rate, the largest drop for any quarter since the Great Depression. However, based on the economic […]

Inflation and the Fed

Post from First Trust Economics Blog Brian S. Wesbury – Chief Economist Robert Stein, CFA – Deputy Chief Economist  Sept 14th, 2020 As we near the end of the third quarter, key economic reports will be released that will influence our forecast for third quarter real Gross Domestic Product. It will be a very strong quarter. We […]

Positive Policies to Cut the Debt Burden

Post from First Trust Economics Blog Brian S. Wesbury – Chief Economist Robert Stein, CFA – Deputy Chief Economist  Sept 8th, 2020 When government forces businesses to close (even if it is for a pandemic), it’s a “taking” in the legal sense. And we can think about $3 trillion in extra federal spending as “just compensation” to […]

S&P 500 3650, Dow 32,500

Post from First Trust Economics Blog Brian S. Wesbury – Chief Economist Robert Stein, CFA – Deputy Chief Economist  Aug 31st, 2020 If you pay close attention to our stock market forecasts, the title of this piece will look familiar. At the end of 2019 we made the same exact forecast for the end of 2020 — […]

The Housing Revival

Post from First Trust Economics Blog Brian S. Wesbury – Chief Economist Robert Stein, CFA – Deputy Chief Economist  Aug 24th, 2020 The US economy got crushed in the second quarter, with the worst decline in real GDP for any quarter since the Great Depression. However, the long road to recovery has started and, for now, we’re […]

Biden’s Tax Hike Agenda

Post from First Trust Economics Blog Brian S. Wesbury – Chief Economist Robert Stein, CFA – Deputy Chief Economist  Aug 17th, 2020 Election Day is eleven weeks from tomorrow. In political time, this is an eternity. However, with the White House, about one-third of the Senate, and the entire House of Representatives on the ballot, this election […]