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Argentina: Is the Pendulum Swinging, Again?
Post from First Trust Economics Blog Brian S. Wesbury – Chief Economist Robert Stein, CFA – Deputy Chief Economist Nov 27th, 2023 When Argentina entered the 20th Century, its prospects looked bright. On a per person basis, its economy was on par with Canada and Sweden and about two-thirds of the United States. This all changed in […]
Consumer Spending Set for Slower Growth
Post from First Trust Economics Blog Brian S. Wesbury – Chief Economist Robert Stein, CFA – Deputy Chief Economist Nov 20th, 2023 Now that we’re about to enter the Christmas shopping season, expect even more focus than usual on the consumer over the next several weeks. We are supply-siders and so usually cringe when we hear analysts […]
The Election Outlook is a Tax Outlook
Post from First Trust Economics Blog Brian S. Wesbury – Chief Economist Robert Stein, CFA – Deputy Chief Economist Nov 13th, 2023 We’re now less than a year away from a presidential election and control of the White House, Senate, and House are all up for grabs. One of the biggest issues facing the winners is going […]
Government Is Too Darn Big
Post from First Trust Economics Blog Brian S. Wesbury – Chief Economist Robert Stein, CFA – Deputy Chief Economist Nov 6th, 2023 Two weeks ago, the yield on the 10-year Treasury Note was hovering around 5%, and the S&P 500 was in contraction territory, down over 10%. But last week, the 10-year yield dipped to 4.6%, while […]
It’s the Same Bear Market
Post from First Trust Economics Blog Brian S. Wesbury – Chief Economist Robert Stein, CFA – Deputy Chief Economist Oct 30th, 2023 The S&P 500 closed at 4,117 on Friday, more than 10% below its recent peak in late July. Some are saying it’s a brand-new bear market for stocks. In this view there was a bear […]
Growth Surge in Q3 Masks Weak Trend
Post from First Trust Economics Blog Brian S. Wesbury – Chief Economist Robert Stein, CFA – Deputy Chief Economist Oct 23rd, 2023 We still think a recession is coming, but it definitely didn’t start in the third quarter. Instead, as we set out below, it looks like real GDP expanded at a 4.7% annual rate. If we […]
Big Government Weighing on Growth
At the end of October we will get our first look at real GDP growth for the third quarter and it looks like it was very strong. We’ll have a more exact estimate a week from now– after this week’s reports on retail sales, industrial production, and home building – but it looks like the […]
Crisis Management Government Leads to No Good
Post from First Trust Economics Blog Brian S. Wesbury – Chief Economist Robert Stein, CFA – Deputy Chief Economist Oct 9th, 2023 Back in 2008, Ben Bernanke and Hank Paulson, using fear of financial collapse, convinced President Bush and Congress to 1) pass a $700 billion bailout of banks (called TARP) and 2) allow the Federal Reserve […]
Tax Policy Outlook
Post from First Trust Economics Blog Brian S. Wesbury – Chief Economist Robert Stein, CFA – Deputy Chief Economist Oct 2nd, 2023 The fiscal year ended last week, alarms went off both literally and figuratively, and a last-minute deal was reached to keep the government open for another forty-five days. Later in October the Treasury Department will […]
Don’t Fall for the Q3 Head-Fake
Post from First Trust Economics Blog Brian S. Wesbury – Chief Economist Robert Stein, CFA – Deputy Chief Economist Sept 25th, 2023 We have plenty of data reports to go, but, so far, the third quarter is shaping up to be a strong one for the US economy. The Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now model is tracking a […]
