M2 Slowdown Finally Gaining Traction

Post from First Trust Economics Blog Brian S. Wesbury – Chief Economist Robert Stein, CFA – Deputy Chief Economist  July 15th, 2024 The lags between a shift in monetary policy and the economic impact are long and variable. While the actions of the Federal Reserve during the pandemic were unprecedented, it finally looks like the excess money […]

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How Strong is the Labor Market?

Post from First Trust Economics Blog Brian S. Wesbury – Chief Economist Robert Stein, CFA – Deputy Chief Economist  July 8th, 2024 We aren’t naturally cynical about economic data, but there are things that don’t add up about the job market. On the surface, Friday’s report was solid, with nonfarm payrolls up more than 200,000 in June, […]

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America’s 3.5-Second Miracle

Post from First Trust Economics Blog Brian S. Wesbury – Chief Economist Robert Stein, CFA – Deputy Chief Economist  July 1st, 2024 In 1852, Karl Marx said “Men make their own history, but they do not make it as they please; they do not make it under circumstances chosen by themselves, but under circumstances directly encountered and […]

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Lessons Not Learned

Post from First Trust Economics Blog Brian S. Wesbury – Chief Economist Robert Stein, CFA – Deputy Chief Economist  June 24th, 2024 Back in the early days of COVID, there was one key indicator that signaled or predicted the high inflation ahead: the M2 measure of the money supply. Unlike in the aftermath of the Financial Panic […]

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Replacing Taxes With Tariffs

Post from First Trust Economics Blog Brian S. Wesbury – Chief Economist Robert Stein, CFA – Deputy Chief Economist  June 17th, 2024 Last week, Donald Trump proposed replacing the income tax with a tariff on imports. Washington DC let out a loud, and collective, scoff. The average American was intrigued. More on this in a few…but to […]

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Spotlighting Inequality

Post from First Trust Economics Blog Brian S. Wesbury – Chief Economist Robert Stein, CFA – Deputy Chief Economist  June 10th, 2024 With a Presidential election less than five months away, expect to hear a great deal of discussion about inequality: the gap between the rich, the poor, and the middle class. It’s been a recurring theme […]

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Waiting on the Fed

Post from First Trust Economics Blog Brian S. Wesbury – Chief Economist Robert Stein, CFA – Deputy Chief Economist  June 3rd, 2024 One of our main contentions in recent months is that the Federal Reserve, by switching from a scarce reserve model to an abundant reserve model, has completely taken over the short- term interest rates marketplace. […]

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Housing Update

Post from First Trust Economics Blog Brian S. Wesbury – Chief Economist Robert Stein, CFA – Deputy Chief Economist  May 28th, 2024 Two reports on home prices arrived this morning, one for the Case-Shiller index and another from the FHFA (a government agency that regulates Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac). Both rose in March, and housing prices […]

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Are Abundant Reserves Paying for the CFPB?

Post from First Trust Economics Blog Brian S. Wesbury – Chief Economist Robert Stein, CFA – Deputy Chief Economist  May 20th, 2024 Back in 2008, the Federal Reserve made important changes in the way it handles monetary policy. We’ve written about them several times, but few really understand. The press won’t ask questions about it and few […]

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Would Trump Reignite Inflation?

Post from First Trust Economics Blog Brian S. Wesbury – Chief Economist Robert Stein, CFA – Deputy Chief Economist  May 13th, 2024 One theory making the rounds is that if President Trump gets back into office, inflation is going to surge. The idea is that if he returns, Trump will raise tariffs, reduce immigration, and jawbone the […]

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