Rearview Mirror OK, Collision Ahead

Post from First Trust Economics Blog Brian S. Wesbury – Chief Economist Robert Stein, CFA – Deputy Chief Economist  Jan 23rd, 2023 First, the good news: we estimate that real GDP grew at a solid 2.8% annual rate in the fourth quarter. But you shouldn’t dwell on the solid GDP report that comes out Thursday. Why? Because […]

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Soft Landing?

Post from First Trust Economics Blog Brian S. Wesbury – Chief Economist Robert Stein, CFA – Deputy Chief Economist  Jan 17th, 2023 We wrote last week about the soft landing that markets now seem to expect. If the US does have a soft landing it would be because the Federal Reserve tightened enough to slow inflation, but […]

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Not Goldilocks

Post from First Trust Economics Blog Brian S. Wesbury – Chief Economist Robert Stein, CFA – Deputy Chief Economist  Jan 9th, 2023 Not long after Friday’s Employment Report multiple analysts and commentators were calling it a “goldilocks” report, by which they meant it showed that the economy was neither “too hot” nor “too cold,” but instead, “just […]

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The Housing Outlook for 2023

Post from First Trust Economics Blog Brian S. Wesbury – Chief Economist Robert Stein, CFA – Deputy Chief Economist  Jan 3rd, 2023 The housing sector was a huge and early beneficiary of the super-loose monetary policy of 2020-21. But, once the Fed started tightening, housing took the lead downward, as well. This isn’t a repeat of the […]

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Greedy Innkeeper or Generous Capitalist?

Post from First Trust Economics Blog Brian S. Wesbury – Chief Economist Robert Stein, CFA – Deputy Chief Economist  Dec 23rd, 2022 The Bible story of the virgin birth is at the center of much of the holiday cheer this time of year. The book of Luke tells us that Mary and Joseph traveled to Bethlehem because […]

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Still Unprecedented

Post from First Trust Economics Blog Brian S. Wesbury – Chief Economist Robert Stein, CFA – Deputy Chief Economist  Dec 19th, 2022 What a difference a year makes! One year ago the Federal Reserve was forecasting that real GDP would grow a strong 4.0% in 2022, that PCE prices would be up a relatively moderate 2.6%, and […]

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S&P 3,900 – Dow 33,000

Post from First Trust Economics Blog Brian S. Wesbury – Chief Economist Robert Stein, CFA – Deputy Chief Economist  Dec 12th, 2022 Predicting stock values in 2023 is tough. Unprecedented actions during COVID leaves a wide range of possible outcomes. Let us explain. As always, we start out with our Capitalized Profits Model. That model takes a […]

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A Plow Horse With Shin Splints

Post from First Trust Economics Blog Brian S. Wesbury – Chief Economist Robert Stein, CFA – Deputy Chief Economist  Dec 5th, 2022 Our position on the economy has been that the US is headed for a recession, but we’re not quite there yet. Nothing in all the recent data reports changes our minds. Look for a recession […]

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This Rally Shouldn’t Last

Post from First Trust Economics Blog Brian S. Wesbury – Chief Economist Robert Stein, CFA – Deputy Chief Economist  Nov 28th, 2022 It’s that special time of the year, and we will all hear and read a great deal about Black Friday, Thanksgiving Weekend, and Cyber Monday during the next few days. Many pundits are going to […]

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The Aftermath Economy

Post from First Trust Economics Blog Brian S. Wesbury – Chief Economist Robert Stein, CFA – Deputy Chief Economist  Nov 21st, 2022 We will forever believe that locking down the economy for COVID-19 was a massive mistake. There is virtually no evidence that death rates were lowered by government mandates and lockdowns. Business activity in certain sectors […]

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